Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 11pc

ISLAMABAD: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 11 per cent as policymakers weighed the impact of recent floods and higher food prices on inflation.

“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11 per cent in its meeting held on October 27, 2025,” the SBP announced in a post on social media platform X.

A monetary policy statement, issued shortly after the announcement on X, said the MPC noted during the meeting that headline inflation “rose significantly” to 5.6pc in September, whereas core inflation remained unchanged at 7.3pc.

Regarding the rise in headline inflation, the statement said, “This largely reflected the expected flood-induced increase in food prices; an uptick in energy prices; and sticky core inflation”.

The MPC observed that, unlike previous flood episodes, the recent surge in food prices appeared to be milder than anticipated earlier, the statement said, adding that this was reflected by the “recent slowdown in price increases of major food items in high frequency SPI (sensitive price index) data, such as wheat and allied products, sugar, and perishable items”.

“Nonetheless, the Committee expects inflation to exceed the upper bound of the target range for a few months in H2-FY26, before reverting to the target range in FY27. This outlook is subject to risks from volatile global commodity prices; magnitude and timing of future energy price adjustments; and uncertainty around prices of wheat and allied products and perishable food items.”

Moreover, “the MPC assessed that the impact of the recent floods on the broader economy appears to be somewhat lower than anticipated at the time of its previous meeting. The crop losses are likely to be contained, whereas supply disruptions turned out to be minimal”, the statement added.

It said that economic activity had gained further momentum, as depicted by “robust growth in high-frequency economic indicators”.

Based on these developments, the overall macroeconomic outlook had improved from the previous assessment, the statement said, adding that at the same time, the MPC noted “uncertainties around this outlook arising from volatile global commodity prices; challenging export prospects amidst the evolving tariff dynamics; and potential domestic food supply frictions”.

“In this backdrop, and given the still-unfolding impact of the earlier reduction in the policy rate, the MPC viewed today’s decision as appropriate to maintain the ongoing price stability.”

Moreover, the MPC noted some “key developments” since its last meeting. Outlining these developments, the statement firstly highlighted that real GDP growth in FY25 had been revised by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to 3pc from the previous estimate of 2.7pc.

“Second, initial estimates of major kharif crops by the Federal Committee on Agriculture remained close to last year’s production, despite the recent floods.

“Third, despite the repayment of a $500 million Eurobond, SBP’s foreign exchange reserves continued to increase. Staff Report